4 Predictions For 2022
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The “Great Resignation” Will Continue To Disrupt the Workforce
A record 4.5 million American workers quit their jobs in the month of November, according to the US Bureau of Labor Statistics, which matched the series-high number of quit rates in September. The wave of departures is also pressuring businesses to pay their employees more amid the current tight labor market. "To the extent that employers are having difficulty filling positions, wages will rise," says Peter Earle, a research fellow at the American Institute for Economic Research (AIER). Here are three reasons why I believe the Great Resignation will continue:
Mass Existential Awakening
Perhaps most profoundly, the dramatic upheaval of the past three years has inspired many young people to rethink how they spend their limited time on Earth. Industries that have struggled most to fill extensive vacancies and see higher resignation rates include retail, hospitality (including restaurant and fast food service), and manufacturing—all historically low-paying jobs that involve back-breaking labor. Perhaps some have decided it’s simply not worth it. News reports suggest some are hoping to switch careers, while others, such as older workers, are opting for early retirement. The consequences are seen in our labor shortages, and, in my opinion, will continue to get worse.
Work-Life Balance
Prior to the pandemic, many workers had not experienced remote working at all. Then, at the peak of the pandemic, offices everywhere were forced to shut their doors, and workers were told to work from home. While remote and hybrid working models were already beginning to gain popularity pre-pandemic, the pandemic certainly accelerated this new working trend, and many believe it’s a “trend” here to stay. According to Limeade, 40% of job changers surveyed said they were attracted to their new position because of the opportunity for remote working that it provided. This suggests that an increasing number of the global workplace now expects to work from home moving forward and enjoys the often better work-life balance that it provides.1
Burnout
According to Limeade’s report, 40% of employees cited burnout as a top reason for leaving their job. Burnout appeared to be a particular problem for those working in healthcare and foodservice/ hospitality during the pandemic. 54% of healthcare workers and 52% of foodservice/ hospitality workers said that burnout as their key motivation for leaving their previous roles. I don’t see this changing anytime soon.
Vertical Video Emerges as the Dominant Video Format Everywhere
Have you been to a concert or a sports game recently? Have you purchased a new phone? Have you scrolled through Instagram, swiped on Tik Tok, or jumped on the Snapchat train yet? I assume the answer is yes to most or all of the above.
Videos on social media have fundamentally changed the way the masses engage with video online. You see it everywhere. Vertical video has become the dominant format and brands should be incorporating it into their marketing mix. Planning to at the very least. We’ll see the continuation of mass adoption of vertical video in marketing, advertising, personal branding, and creativity everywhere. Adjust accordingly!
EV Adoption Exponentially Grows in the US
As someone who spends a lot of time analyzing the ins and outs of the auto industry, I firmly believe 2022 is the year where we see a true monumental change in EV adoption. Automakers are finally understanding that EV vehicles are the future, and competition is fierce. Tesla has a huge lead and will continue to be wildly successful in the near term; however, we will inevitably see their market cap shrink as competitors level up their game. If Volkswagen, Ford, Stellantis, GM, etc. don’t go all in, they risk falling behind the curve and becoming replaceable, in my opinion. We see wild investments throughout the world and will see these numbers rise as mass adoption begins to spread further. Research investment is exploding and marketing budgets are growing; it’s only a matter of time.
Don’t get me wrong, Electric vehicles (EVs) are still a tiny blip in the American car market. They account for about 4% or less of passenger car sales, according to BloombergNEF. They’re hampered by high prices, stigma, and worries about battery life. That changes in 2022. The number of electric models available will double to 20+. It’s still just a fraction of the 300 or so total models available, but meaningful for two reasons. First, you no longer need to be a millionaire to afford an EV. Second, we’re getting what Americans really want: trucks and SUVs. Between the Ford F-150 Lightning and the Rivian R1T (Motor Trend Truck of the year for 2022), along with midsized SUVs like the Volkswagen ID.4, there are the options American families want (especially if we get the aforementioned baby boom). Price points are also coming down, especially with government subsidies in the mix. This is the year where the momentum begins rolling downhill.
International & Domestic Travel Explodes
2022 is the year where we begin to learn how to live with Covid. With vaccinations, boosters, and advanced medicine at our disposal, the threat of hospitalization and death is at an all-time low. Hopefully, as we head towards Spring, things get better and we can once and for all move on. With that, I believe international and domestic travel will explode in the second half of 2022, which is big news for the economy. Many have postponed their vacations and travel for years, and are eagerly waiting to get back on the horse. I expect this area of the economy to flourish in the back half of the year.
Overall, it’ll be fascinating to watch how 2022 plays out. I’m looking forward to re-reading this article in January 2023 and seeing if my predictions come true!
Hayden Schuster
